HK Pathway Timeline Analysis
⚠️ Disclaimer: This data represents community-contributed timelines and may not reflect complete or official statistics. Due to limited sample sizes in some quarters, the analysis should be interpreted as indicative trends rather than definitive processing times. Individual experiences may vary significantly.
Key Processing Insights
Community-contributed data analysis – indicative trends based on available samples
📊 Key Findings
🚨 Observed Delay: CNCC to AIP Stage
In this sample, most timelines appear to be waiting between CNCC (Certificate of No Criminal Conviction) and AIP (Approval in Principle). Median time to AIP: ~47 weeks (~11 months), with CNCC typically completed around ~16 weeks. The wait from CNCC to AIP (~31 weeks) represents the longest observed delay within the available timeline samples.
📈 96.6% Still In Progress
In this community sample, 23 out of 682 timelines (3.4%) have received PR Cards. Most reported timelines are still in process, particularly at earlier stages.
🎯 Stream Distribution
Observed Trend: Stream B appears more common in this sample with nearly 2/3 of timelines. Both streams show similar processing patterns, though individual timelines may vary.
👨👩👧👦 Family Composition
Observed Pattern: Nearly balanced split in this sample. Family timelines may require additional documentation, though processing times vary by individual circumstances.
⏱️ Processing Timeline Breakdown
Showing time between each step (not cumulative from submission)
| Step | From Submission | Step Duration | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| AOR | ~4w | ~4w | ✅ Fast processing |
| Biometric | ~13w | ~9w (13-4) | ✅ Quick turnaround |
| CNCC | ~16w | ~3w (16-13) | ✅ Security clearance |
| AIP | ~47w | ~31w (47-16) | 🚨 BOTTLENECK – 7.5 months wait |
| CPP | ~49w | ~2w (49-47) | ⚡ Fast after AIP |
| PR Portal | ~50w | ~1w (50-49) | ⚡ Quick invitation |
| eCOPR | ~52w | ~2w (52-50) | ✅ Confirmation issued |
| PR Card | ~55w | ~3w (55-52) | 🎉 Physical card delivery |
Observed Trend: The wait from CNCC to AIP (~31 weeks / 7.5 months) appears to be the longest step. After AIP approval, remaining steps typically complete within ~6 weeks. Note: Individual timelines may vary significantly.
📅 Quarterly Trends & Insights
2023 Q2-Q4 (242 timelines)
AIP: ~45-70 week median observed
Completion: ~10% reported PR Card
Note: Limited sample, longer waits reported
2024 Q1 (45 timelines)
AIP: ~67 weeks median in sample
Completion: ~2% (1 PR Card reported)
Note: Small sample size, most still in progress
2024 Q2 (237 timelines) ⭐
AIP: ~14 weeks median (faster trend)
Completion: ~3% reported PR Card
Note: Improvement observed, may reflect processing changes
2024 Q3-Q4 (158 timelines)
AIP: ~41-48 weeks median observed
Completion: ~1% (most still early stage)
Note: Recent submissions, limited completion data
Recent submissions (18 timelines)
Status: Very recent – most at initial stages
Data Quality: Insufficient sample for reliable trends
Note: Sample too small to draw reliable conclusions
📌 Final Takeaway
🔴Observed delay: CNCC → AIP – Timeline samples show ~31 weeks (7.5 months) median wait after CNCC completion
⚡Faster post-AIP – Remaining steps (CPP → PR Card) typically complete within ~6 weeks based on completed timelines
📊Sample distribution – 63% Stream B in this dataset, family timelines nearly balanced (48%)
⏳Limited completion data – Only 3.4% of reported timelines reached PR Card; 96.6% still in progress
📈2024 Q2 variation – Sample showed faster AIP processing (~14 weeks), but individual results vary
⚠️Important reminder – These are community-contributed timelines and may not represent all timelines or official IRCC statistics
Quarterly Milestone Reach Rates by Submission Cohort
This chart shows the percentage of applicants from each submission quarter who have reached different milestones. Note: Earlier quarters (e.g., 2023Q2) show higher reach rates for later milestones because those timelines have had more time to progress. Later quarters (e.g., 2024Q4) show higher rates for early milestones because they are more recent submissions. Each quarter represents an independent cohort, not a trend over time.
Overview
682 data points
Milestone Processing Times (weeks from submission date)
Stream Distribution
Family Composition
📋 Data Handling & Quality Control
Community-contributed data often contains incomplete or inconsistent entries. To ensure data quality, we have applied the following filters:
- Invalid dates removed: Entries with submission dates before 2021 or illogical date sequences (e.g., PR card date earlier than submission date)
- Missing critical data: Timelines with incomplete milestone information that would affect analysis accuracy
- Data validation: Only timelines that pass our validation checks are included in this report
Note: Not all submitted timelines are included in this analysis. We prioritize data quality over quantity to provide more reliable insights.
Data Cutoff Date: This report includes timeline data collected up to November 4, 2025. Data after 2025 is not included due to insufficient data points for meaningful analysis.
Acknowledgments
This report would not have been possible without the dedication and contributions of many individuals.
Data Sources:
Special thanks to:
- Those who initiated and maintain the data collection efforts
- All the people who contributed their timeline data to help others
- The Telegram group administrators for fostering a supportive environment
- Everyone who continues to update their timelines and share valuable insights
Your contributions help future applicants better understand and navigate the Hong Kong Pathway process. Thank you!